Manabe, His Climate Modeling, and How He Fooled Dyson | Independent Climate Research | 230827

Subtitles are available in most human languages. Donation for this channel https://paypal.me/YongTuition Transcript Manabe, a well-trained Computational Meteorologist who had been in USA for over 60 years, remained unknown to most of people in the world until 2021 when the Nobel Committee called him that got Nobel Prize in Physics. 3.How could a meteorologist win a Nobel Prize in physics? What was his original work that is comparable with the discovery of quantum mechanics, if there is any? 4.Today, I am going to give the first talk as an introduction on Manabe and his climate modeling, for which he has become famous. 5.Please Like, make Comments, the more the better, and Subscribe, as well as activate your bell so that you wouldn't miss any new progress in my research and unexpected drama. I think the Youtube algorithm will be impressed. 7.I have been investigating several papers by Manabe in the 1960s since 2019. So, I was not completely surprised when the news came in the present climate. 8.In 1967, he and Wetherald predicted by numerical calculation that CO2 concentration doubling in the atmosphere can cause both the stratospheric cooling and global warming near the surface, between 1.3K and 2.3K, depending on water vapor distribution in the atmosphere. 9.So far, their results have been adopted by the IPCC and many climate researchers as kind of axiom, or standard, to describe the CO2 caused global warming by humans, although the results were calculated for sure. 10.How did he do that? You may wonder. Unlike Arrhenius who simplified the real atmosphere as a single layer of water vapor and CO2 above the surface, Manabe treated the atmosphere as a multiple isothermal layers, a dozen or so. In the this way the vertical temperature distribution could be investigated, from the surface, up to the middle of the stratosphere. 11.No doubt, Manabe’s multi-layer model is more realistic than Arrhenius’s, but his idea was not original. In fact, as one viewer draw my attention, Sir George Clarke Simpson, an esteemed meteorologist, had introduced a multi-layer atmospheric model as early as 1927, focusing on water vapor radiation. 12.Still, Manabe was the first to claim that convection could be incorporated into his radiative transfer calculation, while Arrhenius only considered radiative equilibrium. Again, you may wander, how did he do that? 13.First, he divided all of his radiative layers into two types: convective and non-convective. For the non-convective layers, the local thermal equilibrium temperature of layer can be achieved when the radiation cooling is equal to the convection warming. 14.For example, a layer within the troposphere at a certain temperature would be getting colder if it emits infrared, but it also could be warmed up by hot air flow bought up by convection. Do you know what I mean? So, eventually, the local temperature of this layer, called the local equilibrium temperature, LET, can be achieved. 15.Sounds reasonable? I thought so, but I have become skeptical about it now. How come? Well, let’s consider the radiative and convective balance at the surface first. 16.As a passionate believer of the Greenhouse Effect hypothesis, Manabe argued that the convective thermal flux is determined by the difference between the solar radiation intensity at the surface and the net infrared radiation by the surface, namely, 17.Using the IPCC’s latest global energy budget diagram, this balance equation at the surface can be written in numbers in unit W/m2: 18.So, the convection heat flux at the surface is dependent of the back radiation by the trace Greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, which is as strong as the average radiation by the Sun at the top of the atmosphere, which is a joke. If you think I am wrong, why don’t you take off your cloths and stand outside at night, expecting your skin would be burn by the strong back radiation?

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